|
May 6th 2008 Report (Updated 07:20 UTC)
Minor Activity Watch Extended
Slight increases in seismic activity expected to continue in the coming week, but no strong activity is indicated by core weather modeling.
The Earth directed CME halo from the anomalous C class flare arrived later than was predicted by most sources. The CME halo carried polarities that primarily augmented the Earths natural field. Strong G4 magnetic activity was recorded. And since the polarity was primarily positive, the effects on seismicity were lesser than predicted in the last report. The CME seemed to mostly cancel the influence of the solar wind stream from the small coronal hole.
The energy from the halo manifested primarily above the ground in the form of Cylcone Nargis rather than below the ground in the form of seismic disturbances.
There was one strong event that coincided with the most significant polarity flip:
6.6 2008/05/02 01:33:37 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
This event was originally reported as a 7.0 event but was revised to 6.6 in magnitude.
Also being considered as a factor in lesser than expected seismic activity is the increase in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) leading up to the G4 activity:
Image Credit: SORCE project University of Colorado
TSI is now being considered as a factor in the core weather models as a source of convective heating of the plates and core.
The Earth is presently within a stream of solar wind from a small coronal hole and a slight increase in seismic activity is expected throughout the week.
***
April 28th 2008 Report (21:40 UTC)
Activity Watch Revised
Dissipation of higher frequency energy indicates 7+ seismic event(s) probable in the coming week with 7.5+ seismic event(s) possible around May 1-2
USGS has recently reported the following powerful earthquakes:
6.3 2008/04/28 20:27:05 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.4 2008/04/28 18:33:29 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 2008/04/28 15:57:56 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.1 2008/04/26 23:34:50 -49.057 164.165 10.0 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND REGION
6.5 2008/04/24 12:14:51 -1.139 -23.556 10.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 2008/04/23 18:28:42 22.857 121.678 10.0 TAIWAN REGION
After a few spikes in higher frequency energy, monitors are now indicating nominal levels of solar x-ray activity. As active solar regions continue to dissipate, the rate of core cooling will increase as will vulnerability from solar wind and wind shocks. One such shock is expected to arrive May 1-2 coinciding with a wind stream arriving from a coronal hole on the April 29th. If these effects constructively interfere, 7.5+ seismic event(s) may accompany around May 1-2. The core weather model indicates that 7+ seismic event(s) are likely until the arrival of higher frequency energies.
***
April 24th 2008 Report (12:33 UTC)
Activity Watch Revised
Arrival of higher frequency energy indicates lesser increase in probability of 6+ seismic events while 7+ seismic events are no longer expected in the next few days
Increase in penetrative solar energy theoretically easing tensile stresses.
Credit NOAA/SWPC
***
April 22nd 2008 Report (02:50 UTC)
Activity Watch Continued
Seismic event(s) of 7+ magnitude likely on or around April 24th and 25th with increase in 6+ seismic activity expected to continue
Since the last update there have been the following 6+ events:
6.0 2008/04/19 10:21:13 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.3 2008/04/19 05:58:42 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.1 2008/04/19 03:12:29 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.3 2008/04/18 20:39:07 FIJI REGION
Solar wind shocks from a recurrent coronal hole are expected to arrive April 24th and 7+ seismic events are expected to accompany geomagnetic disturbances while the core continues it’s cooling trend.
***
April 16th 2008 Report (06:40 UTC)
Activity Watch Reinstated
Moderate increase in probability of 6+ seismic activity expected in areas which have experienced significant activity in the past year additional
The magnetic polarity of solar wind destabilized unexpectedly on April 15th. The following events have accompanied the shifts:
6.5 2008/04/16 05:54:23 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
6.6 2008/04/16 05:54:11 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
6.3 2008/04/15 22:59:55 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
6.1 2008/04/15 03:03:10 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
Present field readings from NOAA/SEC
The extended solar minimum is eroding the solar corona and creating difficulty in predicting the influence of the solar wind. This watch will be canceled when the polarity and dynamic pressure have stabilized for two consecutive days or until core cooling trend ends. As the instability continues core conditions indicate additional 6+ seismic events.
***
April 14th 2008 Report (21:12 UTC)
Activity Watch Canceled
Judging from realtime solar wind data from NOAA/SEC magnetic field polarity has stabilized and solar wind speed is dropping below 400km/s. An increase in seismic activity associated with solar wind is presently unlikely. One additional strong quake took place since the last report:
6.0 2008/04/14 09:45 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
The Core Weather model indicates little risk of additional 6+ events at this time. Nominal higher energy emissions indicate that the core continues to cool and plate tensile stresses are still increasing. Areas which have experienced significant seismic in the past year are still vulnerable to additional geomagnetic disturbances should they arrive.
***
April 12th 2008 Report (11:56 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended Until April 19th
Moderate increase in probability of seismic activity expected in areas which have experienced significant activity in the past year.
Since April 9th USGS has reported several major quakes, including:
7.1 2008/04/12 00:30:12 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
6.3 2008/04/09 14:47:50 VANUATU
7.3 2008/04/09 12:46:13 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.3 2008/04/09 11:23:40 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.4 2008/04/09 11:13:20 LOYALTY ISLANDS
Continued nominal higher energy emissions indicate conditions for cooling of the core. An increase in tensile stresses and tension from magma solidifying on the undersides of the tectonic plates is indicated. There are presently no well formed coronal holes. But solar winds are persisting at above normal levels as overall dissipation of the solar corona continues from the extended solar minimum. Until the end of the cooling trend, conditions indicate an increase in probability of seismic activity in regions which have experienced significant activity in the past year. A new magnetic knot with the signature of the new solar cycle may bring additional higher energy forms and an end to the cooling trend in the next week.
April 5th 2008 Report (09:09 UTC)
Activity Watch Until April 12th
Minor increase in probability of Seismic Activity Expected
Sunspot 989 will soon be over the limb. X-ray activity will be crossing the cooling threshold sometime in the next few weeks if additional active regions do not form. Another solar corona wind stream is presently arriving the effects of which may be experienced until April 12th. This is an interesting period for the core weather model since there is not enough information to predict how long until the core starts cooling again. The geomagnetic disturbance over the next week may bring an increase in the probability of seismic activity in areas which have been active in the past year.
March 28th 2008 Report (11:35 UTC)
On March 22nd a core warming trend began with higher energy forms arriving from several active solar regions. This trend is expected to continue until the dissipation or occlusion of sunspots 987, 988 and 989. Strong geomagnetic storms and solar wind from a new coronal hole may persist for the next week. No increase in probability of seismic activity is expected from geomagnetic flux since tensile stresses are being relaxed by penetrating rays warming the core.
March 12th 2008 Report (20:15 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended Until March 17th
Additional 6+ seismic events are likely with 7+ seismic event(s) possible
Variations in coronal activity have led to the recalibration of monitoring instruments and associated difficulties in predicting the influence of coronal anomalies. The extended solar minimum is providing a challenge as these phenomena have not previously been observed in the higher frequency bands.
Additional coronal holes have resulted in a sustained solar wind speed of over 600 km/s for more than 24 hours. Additional seismic disturbances are still expected after geomagnetism settles into a nominal state, with the intensity of these events on some scale proportional to the slope(s) of the normalization curve(s).
March 9th 2008 Report (20:49 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended Until March 13th
Watch Period: March 10th 2008 to March 13th 2008
Additional 6+ seismic events are likely with 7+ seismic event(s) probable
The expected solar wind storm arrived later than expected and further seismic events are expected as geomagnetism settles into a nominal state.
March 2nd 2008 Report (03:57 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended Until March 10th
Watch Period: March 2nd 2008 to March 10th 2008
Additional 6+ seismic events are likely with 7+ seismic event(s) probable
Since the last update additional coronal holes have formed indicating additional geomagnetic disturbances. The following image was taken from the HINODE XRT imager February 28th.
The arrow points to a discontinuity in higher energy distribution, the effects of which will be felt in the next few days. While there has been a slight increase in the higher energy bands, the core continues to cool, increasing the risk from solar magnetic disturbances. Until the efects of this disturbance have passed, 6+ seismic events are likely with 7+ seismic event(s) probable.
Update Lapse: Reports and analysis were not issued from Feb 17 - March 1st 2008.
February 14th 2008 Report (00:00 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended Until Feb 17th
Watch Period: Feburary 14th 2008 to February 17th 2008
Additional 6+ seismic events possible with reduced chance of 7+ seismic event
Since the watch was last extended, according to USGS data there have been the following powerful quakes:
6.9 2008/02/08 09:38:14 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 2008/02/09 18:34:02 MOLUCCA SEA
6.6 2008/02/10 12:22:03 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.4 2008/02/12 12:50:20 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.2 2008/02/13 20:06:44 GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA
5.9 2008/02/13 19:58:44 TIMOR SEA
5.0 2008/02/13 10:32:15 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 2008/02/12 04:32:39 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.5 2008/02/12 01:29:41 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 2008/02/11 22:20:41 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.1 2008/02/11 18:29:31 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.1 2008/02/11 16:37:00 FIJI
5.3 2008/02/10 00:37:15 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 2008/02/09 14:37:50 MOLUCCA SEA
5.4 2008/02/09 07:12:06 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.4 2008/02/08 07:05:41 STATE OF YAP, FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA
The solar wind from the recent coronal holes are dying down, but the HD model (to be discussed in future update) indicates their disturbance has not yet passed. The watch is therefore extended until Feb 17th 2008. The HD model indicates a time-space correlation with the completion of the recent hole’s influence and this event:
5.5 2008/02/12 01:29:41 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
February 8th 2008 Report (4:30 UTC)
Activity Watch Extended
Watch Period: Feburary 8th 2008 to February 14th 2008
Additional 6+ seismic event likely with chance of 7+ seismic event
During the watch from Jan 30 to Feb 7th USGS recorded the following quakes over 6.0:
6.1 2008/01/30 07:32:47 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.0 2008/02/01 12:10:08 FIJI REGION
6.0 2008/02/03 07:34:12 LAC KIVU REGION, DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO (Later downgraded to 5.9)
6.3 2008/02/04 17:01:30 TARAPACA, CHILE
Luckily none of these quakes were in heavily populated areas. There were also 31 quakes in the 4 to 5 magnitude range and 29 quakes of 3 to 4 in magnitude for this period.
Additional Hole with Continued Core Cooling
The coronal hole that indicated this watch shrank and has now dissipated. Another solar wind stream from the another smaller coronal hole should reach Earth by February 10th according to Space Weather. The new hole is smaller but growing laterally and is flanked by active solar regions making the incoming disturbance more dynamic. This dynamic stream is arriving during the persistence of below normal higher frequency emissions and may be associated with an increase in seismic activity. Additional 6+ seismic events are likely with a chance of a 7+ seismic event sometime before Feburary 14th.
January 29th 2008 Report
Activity Watch
Watch Period: January 30th 2008 to February 8th 2008
Likelyhood of 7+ Seismic Event: Moderate
Period in Brief
After C class flare activity beginning December 31st 2007 (below) there was a two week period of nominal higher frequency energy emissions. The area under the X-ray curve in the two weeks following the flare indicated a theoretical core warming trend that tapered off by the end of the second week. 
Image: NASA-SOHO
For the past two weeks there has been a lull in the higher frequency energy emissions indicating a theoretical cooling of the core and therefore increased plate thickness with additional pressure and tectonic stresses.
On or about January 27th the coronal hole pictured below began forming and streams of Solar wind are predicted to reach Earth starting January 31st. (SpaceWeather.Com)
Image Hinode
Because of the core cooling trend, and the incoming solar wind, the core weather model indicates an increased risk of intense seismic activity for the duration of the solar wind storm. Core Weather is issuing a watch indicating that a 7+ magnitude seismic event is likely during the period of January 30th 2008 to February 8th 2008.
The watch period will likely be extended if the hole continues to grow laterally.
October 25th 2007 Report
Solar wind streams and associated geomagnetic disturbances from another large hole in the solar corona (below) arrived yesterday, accompanied by a 7.1 magnitude quake in Indonesia. The ACE Solar Wind Instrument is presently indicating fluctuations in magnetic field polarity. Quake prone areas effected by this activity which are not experiencing a respite (due to the tectonic welds from the lower core temperatures) continue to be at a higher risk for seismic activity.
Hinode XRT image from October 23rd:
October 18th 2007 Report
Higher energy solar radiation has been minimal since the unusual extension of the solar minimum. Higher energies which penetrate the crust and directly contribute to the entropy of the mantle and core, have been missing from the solar spectrum for many months. The cooling trend is leading to increased pressure on the lithosphere as molten mantle solidifies on the underside of the tectonic plates.
Since this is the longest solar minimum in the past century, the mean plate thickness may reach a high for the same period. As the solidification of the mantle continues, the seams of the plates may weld together in places. This unusual circumstance may indicate an increased risk for dramatic seismic events when the welded seams separate again, and the plates find new equilibrium determined by their remodeled undersides.
On October 19th a solar wind stream and accompanied electromagnetic disturbances are expected to arrive from a large mottled equatorial hole in the solar corona. Sudden changes in dynamic pressure and torque on the plates from the geomagnetic disturbances from this hole may spark unusual levels of seismic activity through November 2nd, 2007..
|
